Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, November 30, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 04B (Fengal) is located approximately 61 NM south-southwest of Chennai, India

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2024 hurricane season featured two tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line.

Hurricane Hone was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the central Pacific, developing about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island on August 22. This was the first tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific since Tropical Storm Ema in October 2019. Hone continued to strengthen as it approached the state, eventually becoming a hurricane late on August 24 just over 50 miles south-southeast of Ka Lae, the southern tip of the Big Island. Hone weakened to a Tropical Depression on August 29, then strengthened to a Tropical Storm again from August 30-September 1. During this time a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Kure and Midway Atolls and portions of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Hone became extratropical just after crossing the International Date Line on September 1.

Hurricane Gilma moved into the basin from the east on August 27 and rapidly weakened before dissipating east of Hawaii.

Impacts to the State of Hawaii: Heavy rain from Hurricane Hone caused flash flooding that damaged homes and closed several roads across Hawaii County on August 25, leading to several million dollars in damage. Tropical storm force winds brought down trees and utility poles on the Big Island, with reports of damage on Maui and Oahu as well.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 04B (Fengal)

According to the JTWC warning number 6, sustained winds are 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 04B (Fengal) with fragmented convective banding along the northern semicircle of a partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc). The overall convective structure has slightly degraded over the past 6 hours as high easterly vertical wind shear continues to interact with the system. The llcc is analyzed to be about 30 NM off the coast of India, offset to the east of the convective bursts.

Environmental analysis indicates that 04B is in a marginally favorable environment characterized by strong poleward outflow aloft, high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

04B is forecast to continue tracking slowly westward, along the southern periphery of an extension of the str to the east as the system inches closer to the coast of southeastern India. Landfall is expected to occur in around 12-18 hours.

04B is forecast to gradually weaken as it approaches the coast due to the high vertical wind shear and increasing terrain interaction. An intensity near 40 knots is expected at the time of landfall and then further weakening afterward.

Terrain interaction will continue to erode the vortex and cause the intensity to drop to below tropical storm strength around 36 hours.