Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, November 28, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Robyn) is located approximately 1324 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2024 hurricane season featured two tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line.

Hurricane Hone was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the central Pacific, developing about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island on August 22. This was the first tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific since Tropical Storm Ema in October 2019. Hone continued to strengthen as it approached the state, eventually becoming a hurricane late on August 24 just over 50 miles south-southeast of Ka Lae, the southern tip of the Big Island. Hone weakened to a Tropical Depression on August 29, then strengthened to a Tropical Storm again from August 30-September 1. During this time a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Kure and Midway Atolls and portions of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Hone became extratropical just after crossing the International Date Line on September 1.

Hurricane Gilma moved into the basin from the east on August 27 and rapidly weakened before dissipating east of Hawaiʻi.

Impacts to the State of Hawaiʻi: Heavy rain from Hurricane Hone caused flash flooding that damaged homes and closed several roads across Hawaii County on August 25, leading to several million dollars in damage. Tropical storm force winds brought down trees and utility poles on the Big Island, with reports of damage on Maui and Oahu as well.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Robyn)

According to the JTWC warning number 4, sustained winds are 50 knots with gusts to near 65 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) shows the system has
slightly improved as indicated by overshooting cloud tops and the formation of a minimum cloud wedge along the southeastern quadrant in
the central cloud cover.

Analysis indicates a marginal environment with warm sea surface temperatures and strong poleward outflow offset by strong vertical wind shear.

TC 03S is expected to continue south-southeastward under the ner. After 12 hours, a subtropical ridge approaching from the southwest will compete for steering, slow down the storm motion, then drive the cyclone westward after 24 hours.

The marginal environment will sustain the current intensity up to 12 hours; afterward, increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually erode the system to dissipation by 48 hours.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99B, which is located approximately 278 NM southeast of Chennai

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts an area of disorganized but persistent convection. A microwave image reveals fragmented convective banding throughout the northern semicircle of the broad low-level circulation. Another bullseye image indicates an elongated circulation center with 25-30 knot winds displaced to the northeast and southwest of the defined circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment for further development with good upper-level poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures offset by high (30-40 knots) vertical wind shear.

Global deterministic models are in fair agreement that Invest 99B will
continue to slowly consolidate as it tracks poleward toward the east
coast of India over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.