Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, November 27, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 03S is located approximately 1140 NM east-southeast of Diego Garcia

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

2024 Hurricane Season Summary for the Central Pacific Basin

The 2024 hurricane season featured two tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility. Four to five tropical cyclones occur during an average year. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. The central Pacific basin extends from 140°W to the International Date Line.

Hurricane Hone was the first tropical cyclone of the season in the central Pacific, developing about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Big Island on August 22. This was the first tropical cyclone to form in the central Pacific since Tropical Storm Ema in October 2019. Hone continued to strengthen as it approached the state, eventually becoming a hurricane late on August 24 just over 50 miles south-southeast of Ka Lae, the southern tip of the Big Island. Hone weakened to a Tropical Depression on August 29, then strengthened to a Tropical Storm again from August 30-September 1. During this time a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Kure and Midway Atolls and portions of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll. Hone became extratropical just after crossing the International Date Line on September 1.

Hurricane Gilma moved into the basin from the east on August 27 and rapidly weakened before dissipating east of Hawaiʻi.

Impacts to the State of Hawaiʻi: Heavy rain from Hurricane Hone caused flash flooding that damaged homes and closed several roads across Hawaii County on August 25, leading to several million dollars in damage. Tropical storm force winds brought down trees and utility poles on the Big Island, with reports of damage on Maui and Oahu as well.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 03S

According to the JTWC warning number 2, sustained winds are 40 knots with gusts to near 50 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 03S with a well-defined, partially exposed low-level circulation center (llcc). Strong convective bursts are offset to the southwest of the llcc due to the high northerly shear acting on the system.

Environmental analysis indicates that 03S is in a marginally favorable environment for intensification characterized by strong poleward outflow aloft, high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

03S is forecast to track generally southward through 36 hours, along the western periphery of the ner to the east.after 36 hours, the system is forecast to enter a weak steering environment. a subtropical ridge to the southwest will compete for steering, causing 03S to become quasi-stationary through 48 hours.

After 48 hours, the system is forecast to track westward, along the northern periphery of an extension of the subtropical ridge as the ner reorients and no longer has a steering influence. Regarding intensity, 03S is forecast to marginally intensify to a peak of 45 knots at 24 hours as the vortex becomes more vertically aligned. Vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures are expected to hinder any further intensification though.

After 24 hours, dry air is anticipated to begin entraining into the core of the vortex, causing the system to begin weakening as it decouples. This weakening trend will then persist through the remainder of the forecast period as 03S tracks westward with a drop to below tropical storm strength around 72 hours.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99B, which is located approximately 180 NM northeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir), depict curved deep convective banding consolidating north of the circulation. Another partial pass indicates the area of convection has a symmetrical strengthening circulation with 30 knot winds on the eastern periphery of the circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates a favorable environment for further development with good upper-level divergence, warm sea surface temperatures, symmetric 850 mb vorticity, and low to moderate upper level wind shear (15-20 knots).

Global deterministic models are in good agreement that Invest 99B will consolidate and strengthen over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.