Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, November 24, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99B, which is located approximately 393 NM east-southeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) shows the system still struggling to focus and consolidate, but the energy in the monsoon trof has increased, with convection spreading all the way from the Malaysian Peninsula to over Sri Lanka. The system is being driven by a vigorous westerly wind burst along the equator and is paired with its twin cyclone in the southern hemisphere, Invest 96S.

The environment around the system is favorable for continued slow development low vertical wind shear of 10-15 knots, good upper-level poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. The mjo pulse providing the energy is expected to linger over the far eastern Indian ocean for another few days before tracking over the maritime continent.

Global deterministic models are in good agreement that Invest 99B will continue to slowly consolidate as it tracks towards the southeastern coast of India.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 96S, which is located approximately 314 NM northwest of Cocos Island.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) depicts a poorly-organized, yet consolidating llcc. The system is being driven by a vigorous westerly wind burst along the equator and is paired with its twin cyclone in the northern hemisphere, Invest 99B.

Total precipitable water loops show ample deep moisture feeding into the system from all sides and there is a generally favorable environment to sustain the system including vertical wind shear values below 10 knots over the developing southern hemisphere monsoon trough.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for further development. The mjo pulse providing the energy is expected to linger over the far eastern Indian Ocean for another few days before tracking over the maritime continent and both ensemble and deterministic guidance indicate very slow development over the next few days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.