Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, November 23, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99B, which is located approximately 430 NM south of Port Blair.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) and a microwave image depict a poorly-organized, yet consolidating llcc with flaring convection. The circulation is being driven by a vigorous west wind burst, which is expected to pause and amplify over the far western Indian Ocean for the next few days. Animated total precipitable water loops show broad cyclonic rotation deepening off the northwest coast of Sumatra.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for further development with low to moderate vertical wind shear of 15-20 knots, good upper-level poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global deterministic models are in good agreement that 99B will continue to consolidate and deepen as it tracks west-northwest.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 96S, which is located approximately 350 NM northwest of Cocos Island.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) depicts a poorly-organized, yet consolidating llcc. The system is being driven by a vigorous westerly wind burst along the equator and is paired with its twin cyclone in the northern hemisphere, Invest 99B.

Total precipitable water loops show ample deep moisture feeding into the system from all sides and there is a generally favorable environment to sustain the system including vertical wind shear values below 10 knots over the developing southern hemisphere monsoon trough.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for further development. The mjo pulse providing the energy is expected to linger over the far eastern Indian Ocean for another few days before tracking over the maritime continent and both ensemble and deterministic guidance indicate very slow development over the next few days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.