Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, November 22, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 02S (Bheki)is located about 176 NM southwest of St. Denis – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 02S (Bheki) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 18, sustained winds were 35 knots, with gusts to 45 knots.

Animated infrared imagery shows the system meandering and spinning down. More stratiform fields are spreading over the northwest quadrant and the remaining deep convection is being sheared and displaced well to the southeast.

The system is on the edge of warm waters, but dry air is becoming increasingly entrained into the environment.

The initial intensity is hedged a bit to the generous side based on automated assessments of 39kts and 38kts from the cimss satellite consensus.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 99B, which is located approximately 437 NM south of Port Blair.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) and a microwave image depict a poorly-organized, yet consolidating llcc with flaring convection. The circulation is being driven by a vigorous west wind burst associated with the phase ii madden julian oscillation, which is expected to pause and amplify over the far western Indian Ocean for the next few days. Animated total precipitable water loops show broad cyclonic rotation deepening off the northwest coast of Sumatra.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for further development with low to moderate vertical wind shear of 15-20 knots, good upper-level poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global deterministic models are in good agreement that 99B will continue to consolidate and deepen as it tracks west-northwest.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.