Current Snapshot
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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, October 30, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Kong-Rey)…is located approximately 190 NM south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
>>> Western East Pacific:
Invest 91E
A broad area of low pressure located about 1700 miles west-
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing limited showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days while the
system moves generally westward at about 15 mph. This system is
expected to cross into the Central Pacific Basin by the end of the
week, where environmental conditions look unfavorable for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent
>>> Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly to the west-northwest. By the end of the week, however, upper-level winds should become less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
>>> About 1525 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:
Invest 91E
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days while the system moves generally westward at about 15 mph. This system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Basin by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent
>>> About 1325 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii:
An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is not expected while it moves northwestward around 15 mph. The system is expected to cross into the Western Pacific Basin tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Kong-Rey)
According to JTWC Warning number 25, sustained winds are 110 knots with gusts to 135 knots.
Typhoon 23W (kong-rey), slightly weaker but still impressive, continues to track northwestward towards Taiwan. Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a picturesque storm with a large eye, and multiple impressive mesovortices rapidly spinning along the inside edge of the eyewall. The high-resolution msi also shows a developing wedge of relatively drier low- to mid-level air beginning to form into a distinct moat, already extending from the north counterclockwise to the southeast of the circulation. This is supported by a beautiful microwave pass, which revealed a perfectly circular and dense inner eyewall, almost completely cutoff from a secondary eyewall and separated by a well-defined moat. these features provide extremely high confidence to the structural analysis.
The environment remains favorable overall, however the onset of erc and an some stronger northeasterly shear (indicated as 16 knots in the latest
cimss analysis) are going to offset the otherwise favorable conditions.
The system will continue to track northwestward along the southwestern side of the steering ridge for the next 36 hours or so. Between now and landfall, TY 23W is forecast to weaken steadily due mainly to the erc. The fact that the system is already quite large suggests that it is unlikely to complete a full erc or re-intensify prior to landfall. While not explicitly captured in the forecast, as the system approaches the eastern coast of Taiwan, track motion is very likely to become erratic, with potential significant changes in track speed and direction which could delay landfall and passage over the central mountain range (cmr).
The system is likely to become decoupled as it attempts to cross over the highest peaks of the cmr, and a lee-side jump and vorticity build-down on the western side of the island very likely. By 36 hours, the system is expected to be reforming on the western coast of Taiwan and moving into the Taiwan Strait to the west of Taipei, having started to round the ridge axis simultaneous to crossing the cmr.
While the center of the system is currently expected to remain over water, the anticipated vortex decoupling, high vertical wind shear, and dry air flowing in from eastern China, mean that the system will rapidly weaken after it moves back over water. At the same time, the system will commence extratropical transition (ett) as it moves into the East China Sea (ecs), around 48 hours.
By 72 hours, the system will have rounded the ridge axis and be accelerating towards the east-northeast along a developing frontal boundary. Full transition into a gale-force extratropical low is expected shortly after 72 hours, but the forecast is extended to 96 hours to capture the full transition phase.
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 92 NM south-southwest of Pohnpei.
animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depict a loosely defined area of flaring convection with low level structure beginning to organize around the center.
Environmental analysis reveals that Invest 90W is in a favorable environment for further development, with good divergence aloft, very warm sea surface temperatures, aided with low vertical wind shear (less than 15 knots).
Global models are in good agreement that Invest 90W will generally track northwestward over the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.