Current Snapshot
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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, October 27, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy…is located approximately 1265 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California – Last Advisory
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Trami)…is located approximately 63 NM southwest of Da Nang, Vietnam
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Kong-Rey)…is located approximately 623 NM south-southeast of Kadena AB
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy – Last Advisory
KRISTY BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
According to the NHC advisory number 24
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A sharp turn to the west and west-southwest is expected late today and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical low is expected to dissipate on Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center.
>>> Western East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the western portion of the eastern Pacific basin.
This system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin on Wednesday or Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the western portion of the eastern Pacific basin. This system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin on Wednesday or Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:
Tropical Cyclone 22W (Trami)
According to JTWC Warning number 29, sustained winds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery and radar imagery depict rapidly deteriorating convection, primarily over the western semicircle, with a broad but defined low-level circulation center (llcc). A color composite microwave image shows the bulk of the deep convection displaced over the western semicircle due to moderate to high easterly vertical wind shear.
TS 22W is located within a region of weak steering and is expected to maintain quasi-stationary track motion through 24 hours. Steady weakening will occur through this period due to interaction with land and persistent easterly vertical wind shear.
After 24 hours, the system is forecast to drift eastward along the northern periphery of the low-level westerlies, and should move back over water by the 36 to 48 hour period. The system will likely dissipate but could linger near tropical depression strength.
Tropical Cyclone 23W (Kong-Rey)
According to JTWC Warning number 11, sustained winds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots.
Upper-level outflow has improved quickly over the past 12 hours, with robust equatorward outflow and expanding poleward outflow especially
over the northeastern quadrant. Consequently, as indicated in animated
enhanced infrared satellite imagery, deep convection has built over the center with improved spiral banding. A microwave image shows curved convective banding confined to the southern semicircle wrapping into the southeast quadrant of a broad low-level circulation center.
Another image shows extensive gale-force winds associated with the deep convective banding, however, the center remains broad and ill-defined. a recent ascat image shows a broad circulation with 35-40 knot winds over the western and southern quadrants. The presence of multiple llcc’s is unclear in recent imagery, however, the broad center will still take 12-24 hours to consolidate into a well-defined llcc, which could still lead to significant shifts in the track forecast and track speeds.
Tropical storm 23W is forecast to track westward to west-northwestward through 24 hours with slow intensification as the broad llcc consolidates. After 24 hours, the system should intensify at a faster rate while tracking poleward around the southwest periphery of the str.
As poleward outflow improves the system will reach its peak intensity of 110 knots, with potential for a higher peak intensity possible east of Taiwan. In the extended period, TS 23W will track northward along the western periphery of the str with a track over or just east of Taiwan. In general, the system is likely to recurve toward Kyushu while
undergoing extra-tropical transition after 120 hours.