Current Snapshot
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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, October 20, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 22W…is located approximately 669 NM east of Manila, Philippines
Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no tropical cyclones
>>> South of Southwestern Mexico:
Invest 90E
A trough of low pressure has developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, which is due in part to the remnants of Nadine.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located more than 100 miles offshore the coast of southern Mexico have become a little better organized over the past several hours. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form within the next day or so while the system moves westward at around 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:
Tropical Cyclone 22W
According to JTWC Warning number 3, sustained winds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an elongated but closed low-level circulation center (llcc) with convective banding wrapping into the center. A microwave image highlights the low-level banding wrapping into the circulation center with a tightly curved convective band wrapping along the eastern perimeter of the circulation. Water vapor imagery highlights the strongly enhanced outflow into an upper-level cyclone located to the northeast. To the south, upper-level flow is encouraged by diffluence equatorward.
Tropical depression 22W will be driven westward for the first 36 hours of the forecast period by a subtropical ridge (str) to the north. After 36 hours, the system will track west-northwestward as it begins to round the ridge for the remainder of the forecast period.
In the early forecast, the system will gradually intensify to a peak of 60 knots by 72 hours. The intensification will be driven by warm sea surface temperatures, high ocean heat content, and strong upper-level outflow. The mitigating factor for intensification is moderate to high vertical wind shear that is introduced between 48-72 hours.
The intensity will plateau by 96 hours while striking a balance between favorable environmental features and increasingly unfavorable vertical wind shear. Weakening will commence at 120 hours, when the high shear
overwhelms the system and the intensity declines to 50 knots.
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98B, which is located approximately 200 NM north of Port Blair.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts an area of flaring
convection, with fragmented, formative banding slowly beginning to
consolidate around the low level circulation center (llcc).
Environmental analysis reveals that Invest 98B is in a favorable environment for further development, with warm sea surface temperatures, good poleward outflow aloft, and low to moderate vertical wind shear (10-15 knot) wind shear.
Global models are in good agreement that Invest 98B will generally track west-northwestward over the next 48 hours while rapidly consolidating and intensifying.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to medium.