Current Snapshot
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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, October 17, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
There are no Tropical Cyclones
Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no tropical cyclones
>>> South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle part of next week well offshore of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter portion of next week as the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 161 NM west-northwest of Guam.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low-level circulation (llc) obscured by flaring convection over the center. Another image reveals an elongated circulation with slightly elevated (15-20 knot) winds in the northern periphery beginning to wrap into the system.
Upper-level analysis indicates a favorable environment for development with low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear and good poleward outflow aloft. Very warm sea surface temperatures and an increasingly moist environment will also aid in the development of the system moving forward.
Global deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement on a west-southwesterly track over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.