Current Snapshot
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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James
The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, October 3, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 20W (Krathon)…is located about 130 NM south-southwest of Taipei, Taiwan – Final Warning
Tropical Cyclone 01S (Ancha)…is located about 336 NM south of Diego Garcia – Final Warning
Northeast Pacific Ocean:
>>> Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Invest 98E
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some limited development is possible while the low moves slowly northward or north-northeastward during the next couple of days. Atmospheric conditions should become less conducive and prevent further development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days..low…10 percent
>>> Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter, some slow development is possible while the system drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days..low…30 percent
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:
Tropical Cyclone 20W (Krathon) – Final Warning
According to the JTWC warning number 27, sustained winds were 25 knots, with gusts to 35 knots.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts the Typhoon 20W (Krathon) making landfall near the city of Kaohsiung, Taiwan. Spiral bands of deep convection are slowly thinning, as the system tracks north-northeast, into the central Taiwan, along the western side of the central mountain range.
As TY 20W makes landfall near the city of Kaohsiung it is forecast to turn north-northeastward and track into central Taiwan, under the influence of a ridge to the east. However, by 24 hours the primary steering will be taken over by the building ridge to the west, as well as an ongoing cold surge event, bringing dry and cold air through the strait of Taiwan.
As Krathon transits over land, the unfavorable impacts of terrain, as well as increasing vertical wind shear, will cause further erosion leading to a rapidly decreasing intensity, reaching 40 knots by 24 hours. After that, the system is forecast to be steered westward and become embedded in the low-level cold surge, with further weakening of the cyclone core and wind field, eventually dissipating below 20 knots by the end of the forecast period. After the dissipation of 20W, elevated winds in the Taiwan Strait may persist that are not associated with the system.
Tropical Cyclone 01S (Ancha) – Final Warning
According to the JTWC warning number 7, sustained winds were 30 knots, with gusts to 40 knots.
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 01S (Ancha) with dissipating convection over the center that has started to expose the low-level circulation center (llcc).
Environmental analysis indicates that 01S is in an unfavorable environment characterized by strong equatorward outflow aloft and moderate vertical wind shear greatly offset by extensive dry air to the west and cooling sea surface temperatures.
01S is forecast to continue tracking southwestward along the western periphery of the ridge to the east-southeast through the remainder of the forecast period.
Continued dry air entrainment, cooling sea surface temperatures, and increasing vertical wind shear will all cause the system to weaken over the next 36 hours. Dissipation is forecast to occur around 36 hours, however an earlier dissipation could occur depending on how long the vortex is able to hold together while within the dry environment and cooling sea surface temperatures.