Current Snapshot

Tropical Cyclone 11E

DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE
COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO

According to the NHC Advisory number 5

The depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow and erratic motion is expected tonight and Thursday, followed by a northward motion Thursday night through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday night or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

>>> Offshore of Southern Mexico:

Invest 97E

An area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, in close proximity to Tropical Depression 11E. Recent microwave imagery and satellite-wind data suggests these two features have moved closer together and are interacting. Given their proximity, it is becoming increasingly possible that Invest 97E will merge with the tropical depression. Thus, this system’s chances for tropical cyclone development are decreasing.

However, if this system is able to survive, it is forecast to begin moving slowly west-northwestward later this week, parallel to the coast of Mexico when conditions could become more favorable for development.

Regardless, this system is expected to add to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system along with Tropical Depression Eleven-E.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days..low…near 0 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 19W (Jebi) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC warning number 24, sustained winds were 55 knots, with gusts to 70 knots.

TS Jebi is currently undergoing extratropical transition through its northeastward track into the mid-latitude baroclinic zone as sea surface temperatures have decreased and vertical wind shear (vws) has increased to above 25 knots.

The system is expected to complete extratropical transition during the next six to twelve hours as an eastward progressing long wave trough will provide transition support into an asymmetric cold-core mid-latitude low.

Animated visible imagery and a microwave image support the extratropical transition assessment as convection associated with 19W has become poleward and eastward of the low-level circulation center, and the systems vertical structure continues to become increasingly tilted with height.

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Krathon)

According to the JTWC warning number 23, sustained winds were 90 knots, with gusts to 110 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a ragged eye feature that is cloud-filled and completely exposes the low-level circulation center (llcc). The erratic and quasi-stationary motion has continued to upwell cooler water.

The cool water is primarily driving the gradual weakening trend while the environment is otherwise favorable for intensification. Upper-level outflow remains equatorward but moderate into diffluent northeasterly flow. An earlier image in between valid times supports the current track position and assisted in identifying the wind radii.

Typhoon (ty) 20W will remain in a competing steering environment for the next 24 hours as it remains pinned between two subtropical ridges to the east and west. During this time, the motion will continue to be erratic but overall northeastward. After landfall between 12-24 hours, the eastern ridge will pull the typhoon northeastward over the mountainous terrain of Taiwan.

The system will continue to gradually weaken to 90 knots before landfall as cooler waters rise to the surface due to the slow storm motion. After the system makes landfall, the intensity will drop starkly due to topographic interaction while TY 20W passes over Taiwan. Ultimately, the system will dissipate over land by 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 01S (Ancha)

According to the JTWC warning number 5, sustained winds were 45 knots, with gusts to 55 knots.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts deep convective banding from the northeast wrapping into an obscured low-level circulation center. A wedge of subsident dry air in the northwest quadrant wraps into the circulation center. Water vapor imagery reveals strong radial outflow aloft. Another image supports the center position and the 35 knot wind radii.

Tropical cyclone 01S is forecast to track southwestward approaching the axis of a subtropical ridge to the east. The system will track into a region of high vertical wind shear, which will gradually erode the system intensity to 30 knots by 72 hours.

In the meantime, dry air will also entrain into the system from the west, which will further degrade the environment for intensification. The upper-level environment after 48 hours will become streamlined and unfavorable. It is possible that earlier weakening may occur due to the compounding affects of the negative environmental features.