Current Snapshot

Tropical Cyclone 11E

DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

According to the NHC Advisory number 2

The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the depression will likely move inland on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast, and it could become a tropical storm by early Wednesday. Weakening is expected after landfall.

>>> Offshore of Southern Mexico:

Invest 97E

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of Acapulco continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are generally conducive for development, the proximity of this system to the low pressure area near the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP96) could limit development chances during the first couple of days. Later this week, the system is forecast to begin moving slowly west- northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico, with development chances increasing by this weekend. This system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor
the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days..high…80 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 19W (Jebi)

According to the JTWC warning number 23, sustained winds were 60 knots, with gusts to 75 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a collapsing convective structure with warming cloud tops obscuring the low-level circulation center. Another image highlights the degrading state of tropical storm (TS) 19W as it screams northeastward. The warming cloud tops can be attributed to the cool sea surface temperatures below 26c which no longer fuels the system favorably for intensification. A strong upper-level jet extending over the sea of Japan erodes the northwestern quadrant of the system.

TS 19W will continue to track eastward for the next 24 hours guided by the ridge to the southeast and at an enhanced speed as the system becomes embedded within the jet to the north. While in the current environment of cool and unfavorable sea surface temperatures, TS 19W will continue to undergo extra-tropical transition for the next 12 hours and become fully extra-tropical by 24 hours.

In the meantime, the intensity will decline due to the cool waters alongside high shear above 25-30 knots that is introduced by the jet interaction at 12 hours. The system will continue to weaken to 25 knots by 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 20W (Krathon)

According to the JTWC warning number 20, sustained winds were 100 knots, with gusts to 125 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts warming cloud tops and a cloud-filled eye feature that has weakened over the last 12 hours as expected with an earlier eyewall replacement cycle that is now complete. The slow motion of Typhoon 20W has caused upwelling in the region as well as a decrease in ocean heat content which are both unfavorable for further intensification. Upper-level outflow remains strong and equatorward towards diffluent northeasterly flow.

By the time the system comes back out over water, it will be a meager 35 knots and met with elevated and unfavorable shear weakening the circulation. The track is forecast with low confidence based on uncertainty in how long the system will remain quasi-stationary in the competing steering environment.

The intensity will be highly dependent on the track forecast and how significant the upwelling is during the initial quasi-stationary period, as well as how long topographic interaction persists after landfall on the southwest coast of Taiwan.

Tropical Cyclone 01S

According to the JTWC warning number 2 (Ancha), sustained winds were 45 knots, with gusts to 55 knots.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) and early multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) shows tropical cyclone 01S (Ancha) continuing to improve structurally, with a symmetrical central dense overcast developing over the past six hours or so. Another pass revealed a nascent microwave eye feature, with strong convective banding mostly limited to the western side of the center, with shallow banding on the eastern side. the color enhanced image showed a well-defined microwave eye feature with a large band of convection far to the east wrapping into the small inner core of the system.

The environment remains overall favorable with low deep-layer shear, robust poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperature values, however the cimss mid-level shear estimate, as well as model soundings suggest a moderate amount of easterly shear is lurking under the hood, offsetting the otherwise positive environment.

TC Ancha will continue to track southwestward along the northwest side of the ridge through the entirety of the forecast period. a slight turn more poleward is expected at the end of the forecast, as the system begins to round the axis of the steering ridge. At that point the system will have dissipated as a tropical cyclone, but the remnant vortex is likely to turn southward after the end of the forecast.

In the near-term, the robust outflow and relatively low deep-layer shear will fuel some additional intensification, up to 50 knots by 12 hours. Thereafter, mid-level shear is expected to increase first, then dry air will move in from the west, which will start to weakening trend. By 36 hours, deep layer shear
will increase and dry air will completely engulf the vortex, commencing a more rapid weakening phase. The system is expected to dissipate below warning criteria no later than 72 hours, and likely as early as 60.