Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, January 9, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Dikeledi) is located approximately 422 NM north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Dikeledi)

According to the JTWC Warning number 1, sustained winds are 50 knots, with gusts to near 65 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 07W with persistent convection over the obscured low-levelcirculation center (llcc). Strong westward and poleward outflow is apparent with the presence of well-defined cirrus filaments expanding outward in those directions.

Environmental analysis indicates that 07S is in a favorable environment for development characterized by the robust outflow aloft, low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

07S is forecast to continue tracking west-northwestward along the northern periphery of the str to the south through 48 hours. Landfall is forecast to occur around 48 hours along the northern tip of Madagascar. After 48 hours, the system is expected to make a southwestward turn as it rounds the ridge axis. Around 96 hours, 07S will begin to track more southward through the Mozambique Channel as it runs along the western periphery of the str.

Regarding intensity, 07S is forecast to steadily intensify over the next 36 hours to a peak of around 70 knots as the environment remains conducive. Near 48 hours, 07S will make landfall and begin to weaken. The amount of weakening will depend highly on the amount of terrain interaction with northern Madagascar. If it makes landfall further south, then it could weaken much more than
currently forecast.

As it stands, 07S will brush the northern tip and then weaken to around 60 knots. It will maintain intensity through 120 hours as increased shear (20-25 knots) fights the warm sea surface temperatures within the Mozambique Channel. In the extended forecast (past 120 hours), further intensification is probable as the poleward outflow channel will greatly improve.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 97S, which is located approximately 495 NM southeast of Cocos Islands.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a quickly consolidating llcc with deep persistent convection building over the center. Another image depicts low level clouds tightly wrapping into the system center.

Environmental analysis reveals favorable conditions for development with low vertical wind shear (10-15 knots), warm sea surface temperatures, and moderate radial outflow aloft.

Global ensembles are more aggressive overall while deterministic models show a small window of potential gale force intensity.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98P, which is located approximately 328 NM west-northwest of Niue

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts disorganized widespread convection obscuring the low level circulation center. Previous ascat imagery depicts an elongated circulation embedded within the south pacific convergence zone.

Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development with warm sea surface temperatures, low (10-15 knots) vertical wind shear, and strong poleward and equatorward outflow channels aloft. The main hindrance for development is the elongated nature of 98P and its inability to consolidate moving forward.

Global deterministic and ensemble models are in good agreement on a east-southeastward track over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.