Tropical Cyclone 11S / Invest 92S / Invest 96P – Pacific
Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, January 28, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 11S is located approximately 352 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

 

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

 

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: 

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 11S

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts tropical cyclone 11S with a well-defined, exposed low-level circulation center (llcc). Persistent convection is placed over the southwestern periphery of the circulation, revealing the tilted nature of the vortex.

Environmental analysis indicates that 11S is in a marginally favorable environment for development characterized by moderate poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures, offset by dry air to the west of the llcc and moderate (15-20 knot) easterly vertical wind shear.

11S is forecast to track southwestward along the northwestern periphery of the str through 36 hours. After 36 hours, a second ridge is expected to build south of the system and drive it more westward. Around 96 hours, 11S will begin to round the northwestern periphery of that ridge and track southwestward through the remainder of the forecast period.

Regarding intensity, 11S is forecast to slightly intensify over the next 12 hours to around 40 knots. After 12 hours, intensity is forecast to maintain
through 48 hours. The primary limiting factor is the tilted nature of the vortex and persistent moderate easterly shear. These two factors will inhibit any further intensification during this time.

Around 72 hours, models vary significantly on the nature of the vortex alignment. Depending on how much the system can align, an intensification trend could ensue. If it remains tilted it could simply fall apart. As for now, the JTWC forecast calls for moderate intensification after 72 hours due to the fact that easterly shear will continue to be a factor.

 

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 92S, which is located approximately 113 NM south of Toliara, Madagascar

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts 92S with an elongated
low-level circulation center and formative convective banding along the eastern periphery.

Environmental analysis indicates that 92S is in a marginally favorable environment characterized by good poleward outflow aloft and warm sea surface temperatures offset by moderate to high (20-25 knot) westerly vertical wind shear and dry air within the western sector of the system.

Numerical model guidance is in agreement on a slow southeastward track over the next 48 hours with slight intensification as the system stalls within the southern Mozambique Channel.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

 

Southwest Pacific Ocean

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 96P, which is located approximately 21 NM east-northeast of Cairns, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows a quickly consolidating low pressure area embedded underneath flaring convection along the eastern coast of Cape York, Australia, just north of Cairns. Surface observations from Cairns international airport are showing sustained southerly wind speeds consistently around 10 knots for the past three hours.

The system is currently in a conducive environment for development moving forward with low to moderate (15-20 knots) vertical wind shear, very warm sea surface temperatures, and a moderate equatorward outflow channel aloft in a moisture-filled environment.

Deterministic and ensemble model guidance on the system shows limited development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is high.