Invest 92S / Invest 93S – Pacific
Sunday, January 26, 2025

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, January 26, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

There are no Tropical Cyclones

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

 

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

 

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas: There are no Tropical Cyclones

South Indian Ocean

>>> An area of convection being referred to as Invest 92S, which is is located approximately 358 NM east-southeast of Beira, Mozambique

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a ssmis 91ghz satellite image depict a broad area
of flaring convection, with an asymmetric low level circulation center.

Environmental analysis reveals that Invest 92S is in a marginally favorable environment for further development, with good equatorward outflow aloft, warm sea surface temperatures, offset by high (25-30 knot) vertical wind shear.

Global models are in good agreement that Invest 9Ss will generally maintain the same trajectory, tracking southwestward over the next 36 hours as the system continues to intensify.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

 

>>> There’s a second area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 93S, which is located approximately 449 NM southeast of Diego Garcia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts an elongated area of rotation, with multiple areas of vorticity on the fringes. The primary low level circulation center (llcc) and associated deep convection lies in the west-southwest portion of the east-west oriented trough. A microwave image also depicts fragmented and elongated bands of convection flowing around the assessed llcc, primarily to the southeast.

Also, a partial scatterometry pass reveals a wind field of 20-25 knots to the south-southwest, with areas of increased 25-30 knot winds beginning to wrap into the llcc. Additionally, several ship observations to the north of the circulation are reporting westerly winds between 25-30 knots.

Environmental analysis indicates that Invest 93S is in a favorable environment for further development due to warm sea surface temperatures, low (less than 15 knots) vertical wind shear, and good equatorward and poleward outflow aloft.

Global models are in good agreement with the consolidation of Invest 93S over the next 24-36
hours as it slowly drifts westward. The ECMWF and GEFS ensemble models are in some agreement with the general west-southwesterly track.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.