Tropical Cyclone 10S (Sean) – Pacific
Saturday, January 18, 2025

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, January 18, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 10S is located approximately 202 NM northeast of Learmonth, Australia

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

 

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

 

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 10S

According to the JTWC Warning number 5, sustained winds are 50 knots, with gusts to near 65 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) shows system has intensified over the last six hours as evidenced by more organized feeder bands that wrapped tighter into the low level circulation center (llcc) that has remained partially exposed due to the breaks in the fragmented bands near the llcc.

The initial position is placed with high confidence based on the partly exposed llcc in the msi loop that was concentric with a defined llcc in the composite radar loop from the Port Hedland radar site.

Analysis indicates a highly favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, moderate radial outflow and low vertical wind shear.

TC 10S will track more southwestward then southward around the northwestern then western periphery of the steering str. The highly favorable environment will fuel rapid intensification to a peak of 90 knots by 36 hours.

Afterward, cooling sea surface temperatures, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air intrusion will gradually erode the system down to 50 knots by 120 hours.