Tropical Cyclone 07S (Dikeledi) / Invest 90S – Pacific
Thursday, January 16, 2025

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, January 16, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Dikeledi) is located approximately 740 NM southeast of Europa Island

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

 

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

 

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Dikeledi)

According to the JTWC Warning number 15, sustained winds are 75 knots, with gusts to near 90 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts tropical cyclone 07S (Dikeledi) as a compact system with an evident but deteriorating eye-feature.

While intensification has been observed over the past 12 hours, well-defined convective banding has wrapped around the eastern periphery of the low-level circulation into the southern quadrant as the northern semicircle has begun showing signs of increased pressure from the northwest with a tighter brightness temperature gradient.

Aloft, strong poleward outflow has also continued as the upstream leg of an equatorward extending longwave trough has supported intensification since the previous forecast.

Tropical cyclone 07S (Dikeledi) is forecast to continue to the east-southeast over the next 36 hours around the southwest and southern periphery of the subtropical ridge located directly to the east-southeast. Following 36 hours, the system is expected to track eastward along the southern extent of the subtropical ridge and into the mid-latitude westerlies until extratropical transition at 48 hours.

With regard to intensity, TC 07S is forecast to begin its initial weakening phase over the next few hours as the system tracks east-southeast into cooler waters, with eventual dissipation due to baroclinic transition. From this analysis, TC Dikeledi is expected to continue weakening with sustained cooler sea surface temperatures and increased vertical wind shear above 20 knots through the remainder of the forecast period at 48 hours.

However, starting around 24 hours, the cyclone will begin extratropical transition with increased interaction with the mid-latitude westerlies associated with the baroclinic zone. By 48 hours, TC 07S is expected to complete extratropical transition as the system becomes completely embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow yet sustain intensities of 40 knots as a baroclinic cyclone.

 

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to Invest 90S, which is located approximately 314 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image depict an area
of circulation with a partially exposed llcc with deep cycling convection primarily along the southern periphery of the circulation. An ascat metop-b pass indicates that the circulation is consolidating into a more symmetrical wind field.

Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development with low to moderate shear (15-20 knots), moderate divergence aloft, background low-level
vorticity and moisture associated with the monsoon trough, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global deterministic models and ensemble systems indicate that this system will move eastward over the next couple of days and potentially interact with or merge with a separate circulation in the vicinity of Broome, Australia before ultimately turning southwestward offshore of western Australia.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.