Tropical Cyclone 07S (Dikeledi) / Invest 90S – Pacific
Wednesday, January 15, 2025

Current Snapshot

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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, January 15, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Dikeledi) is located approximately 239 NM south-southeast of Europa Island

 

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.

 

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.

 

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

South Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone 07S (Dikeledi)

According to the JTWC Warning number 13, sustained winds are 85 knots, with gusts to near 105 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows the system has intensified as evidenced by expanded and deepened central convection and the formation of a dimpled eye. The cyclone has begun to accelerate south-southeastward and tapped into the poleward outflow channel.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and moderate equatorward and poleward outflow slightly offset by moderate vertical wind shear.

TC Dikeledi will accelerate southeastward then eastward on the poleward side of the str. The favorable environment, enhanced later by increasing poleward outflow will promote further intensification to a peak of 75 knots at 12-24 hours.

Afterward, increasing vws and cooling sst will begin to erode the system as it enters the baroclinic zone, reducing it to 50k knots by 72 hours. Concurrently by 48 hours, TC 07S will commence extra-tropical transition and by 72 hours, will transform into a strong gale-force cold core low.

 

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to Invest 90S, which is located approximately 288 NM north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image depict an area of circulation with a partially exposed llcc with deep cycling convection primarily along the southern periphery of the circulation. A ascat metop-b pass indicates a
consolidating circulation with stronger winds (20 knots) wrapping into the center.

Environmental analysis indicates favorable conditions for development with low to moderate shear (15-20 knots), moderate divergence aloft, background low-level vorticity and moisture associated with the monsoon trough, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global deterministic models and ensemble systems indicate that this system will move eastward over the next couple of days and potentially interact with or merge with a separate circulation in the vicinity of Broome, Australia before ultimately turning southwestward offshore of western Australia.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.