Current Snapshot
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By PDC’s Senior Weather
Specialist Glenn James

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, January 12, 2025, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas
Current Tropical Cyclones:
Tropical Cyclone 07S (Dikeledi) is located approximately 186 NM east of Nacala, Mozambique
Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
The last regularly scheduled Tropical Cyclone Activity Report of the 2024 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the NHC.
Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones
The 2024 central North Pacific hurricane season has ended. As such, the final routine Tropical Cyclone Activity Report for the 2024 season has been issued. Routine issuance of this section of the PDC product will resume on June 1, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant by the CPHC.
Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:
South Indian Ocean
Tropical Cyclone 07S (Dikeledi)
According to the JTWC Warning number 7, sustained winds are 70 knots, with gusts to near 85 knots
Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts low-level banding wrapping into a low-level circulation center (llcc) obscured by an irregularly shaped central dense overcast convection. Water vapor imagery reveals strong radial outflow with no discrete cloud edges.
Tropical cyclone 07S is forecast to track southwestward over the Mozambique Channel for the next 48 hours while approaching the str axis. After 48 hours, the system will alter course southeastward, continuing to round the ridge. The intensity of TC 07S will stagnate for the first 12 hours while an upper-level cyclone to the south moves outbound eastward.
An upper-level anticyclone will move in, allowing for a poleward outflow channel to form between 24-72 hours, improving upper-level divergence. Vertical wind shear will remain low to moderate until 72 hours.
The increasingly favorable environment for the first 72 hours will lead to a peak intensity of 100 knots by 72 hours. By 96 hours, an upper-level jet maximum will begin to induce high vertical wind shear and baroclinic forcing, initiating extratropical transition. Weakening will continue through the end of the forecast and extratropical transition will complete.
Southwest Pacific Ocean
>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather that is being referred to as Remnants of 08P, which is located approximately 443 NM southwest of Bora Bora
The system is currently classified as a subtropical cyclone, generally characterized as having both tropical and mid-latitude cyclone features.
Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an area of broad and elongated low level circulation center (llcc) with convection in the delta region poleward and east of center. A recent ultra high resolution scatterometry pass reveals a wind field of 25-30 knots in the northwestern quadrant of the subtropical storm with strong winds of 30-35 knots wrapping into the llcc.
Upper-level analysis indicates marginal conditions for tropical cyclone development due to high (20-30 knots) of vertical wind shear as the system is embedded within an upper-level jet maximum inducing strong westerly flow aloft. JTWC has assessed this system to be a subtropical storm.
Global models indicate that over the next 24-36 hours 08P will continue to track quickly to the east and become more baroclinic in nature as it begins to interact with upper level troughing.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 33 to 38 knots.
The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours is low.