Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, September 9, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the middle part of the week, just to the south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of the week while it moves generally north-northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 271 NM southeast of Kadena.

The system is currently classified as a monsoon depression-like system, generally characterized as a large cyclonic circulation, with a radius of maximum winds greater than 100 NM and the highest winds confined to the periphery of the circulation and a weak core of light winds.

Animated enhanced infrared imagery depict no well-defined low level circulation center (llcc), but rather a large area of rotation. A microwave image depicts fragmented curved convective banding over the northwestern semicircle of the broad circulation.

Environmental analysis indicates that 94W is in a favorable environment for development with moderate vertical wind shear of 15-20 knots, good eastward and westward outflow aloft. lastly, warm sea surface temperatures.

Global model guidance continue to suggest this system will continue to track westward towards the Ryukyu Islands and develop some enhanced winds along the northwestern periphery, but likely fail to show typical tropical cyclone features.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 95W, which is located approximately 266 NM southeast of Guam.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a broad circulation with deep curved convective banding. Another pass reveals strong winds of 5-10 knot near the low-level circulation center (llcc) with slightly higher winds of 15-20 knots displaced over 140 NM south-southwest of the semi-circle.

Environmental analysis reveals a marginally favorable environment  with moderate vertical wind shear of 15-20 knots, good poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in good agreement that invest 95W will quickly develop  over the next 24 hours, as it continues its track toward the northwest.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 17 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.