Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, September 8, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Yagi)…is located approximately 56 NM east of Hanoi, Vietnam – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to middle part of the week, near or just to the south of the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves generally northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

>>> Approximately 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure are located over 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some subsequent development of this system as it moves slowly northward over the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Typhoon 12W (Yagi) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 24, sustained winds are 110 knots with gusts to near 135 knots

Animated enhanced infrared imagery depicts warming cloud tops and a filling clouded eye feature as the system tracks into the flat and humid Bac Son Valley of the Haiphong Province, which may cause gradual weakening before tracking over into the mountainous region of the Xuan Son National Park. The terrain interaction will ultimately lead to dissipation by the end of the forecast at 48 hours.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 270 NM southeast of Kadena.

The system is currently classified as a monsoon depression-like system, generally characterized as a large cyclonic circulation, with a radius of maximum winds greater than 100 NM and the highest winds confined to the periphery of the circulation and a weak core of light winds.

Animated multi-spectral imagery satellite (msi) depicts a broad, disorganized low level circulation center (llcc) with little to no convection.

Global models indicate the system is expected to track northwestward over the next 48 hours where it will find favorable conditions for development, including low to moderate vertical with shear of 15-20 knots, good poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures. It is expected to remain very broad and undergo only limited consolidation.

In the extended range, global models suggest the system will turn west towards the Ryukyu Islands and develop some enhanced winds along the northwestern periphery of the broad llcc.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 95W, which is located approximately 268 NM southeast of Guam.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a disorganized low-level circulation (llc) with formative banding. A partial microwave image depicts low-level cloud banding on the northern periphery of the circulation with weakly organized deep convection to the south. An earlier image reveals cyclonic banding in the northern periphery of the troughing region, but an absence of westerly support to the south of the circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear of 10-15 knots, good poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models indicate steady development with a northwestward track over the next 2-3 days.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 12 to 17 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 92B, which is located approximately 166 NM east of Visakhapatnam.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a shallow consolidating exposed low level circulation center (llcc) with curved low-level cloud banding. A partial microwave image depicts deep convection sheared to the western semi-circle of the llcc.

Environmental analysis reveals a moderate environment with high vertical wind shear of 15-20 knots, moderately diffluent equatorward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures. The primary inhibiting environmental factor is the elevated vertical wind shear, however a sharp gradient exists and the shear environment is more favorable as the system passes farther north.

Global models indicate steady development over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.