Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, September 7, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Yagi)…is located approximately 56 NM east of Hanoi, Vietnam – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to middle part of next week, near or just to the south of the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves generally northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

>>> Approximately 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure are located over 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some subsequent development of this system as it moves slowly northward over the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Typhoon 12W (Yagi) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 24, sustained winds are 110 knots with gusts to near 135 knots

Animated enhanced infrared imagery depicts warming cloud tops and a filling clouded eye feature as the system tracks into the flat and humid Bac Son Valley of the Haiphong Province, which may cause gradual weakening before tracking over into the mountainous region of the Xuan Son National Park. The terrain interaction will ultimately lead to dissipation by the end of the forecast at 48 hours.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 471 NM east-southeast of Kadena.

The system is currently classified as a monsoon depression-like system, generally characterized as a large cyclonic circulation, with a radius of maximum winds greater than 100 NM and the highest winds confined to the periphery of the circulation and a weak core of light winds.

Animated multi-spectal imagery satellite (msi) depicts a broad, disorganized low level circulation center (llcc) with little to no convection.

Global models indicate the system is expected to track northwestward over the next 48 hours where it will find favorable conditions for development, including low to moderate vertical with shear of 15-20 knots, good poleward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures. It is expected to remain very broad and undergo only limited consolidation.

In the extended range, global models suggest the system will turn west towards the Ryukyu Islands and develop some enhanced winds along the northwestern periphery of the broad llcc.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 95W, which is located approximately 899 NM east-southeast of Guam.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts poorly organized tropical wave embedded within easterly flow and no discernable low-level circulation center (llcc). A microwave image depicts fragmented low-level curved banding over the northern semicircle of the tropical wave. Another image shows 15-20 knot easterly winds over the eastern semicircle.

The current environmental conditions are favorable with warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind
shear of 05-10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone. Global models strongly indicate the system is expected to track north-westward towards the Mariana’s.

The ensemble guidance is in good agreement regarding the development timeline over the next 2-3 days. Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts poorly organized tropical wave embedded within easterly flow and no discernable low-level circulation center (llcc).

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 92B, which is located approximately 131 NM east of Visakhapatnam.

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a small, partially exposed low level circulation center (llcc), with deep convection to the southwest sheared off to the southwest. The llcc looks to have been present for at least the last 12 hours, but has been slowly consolidating just offshore the east coast of India.

Environmental analysis indicates 92B is in a favorable environment for development with warm sea surface
temperatures, low to moderate (15-20 knot) easterly vertical wind shear, and good westward and equatorward outflow aloft, with the system lying underneath a weakened tropical easterly jet (tej).

Global models are in agreement that 92B will continue to intensify and track north-northwestward over the next 24-48 hours, likely moving inland over far northeastern India within the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.