Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, September 6, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Yagi)…is located approximately 136 NM east-southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam

Tropical Cyclone 13W (Leepi)…is located approximately 567 NM east of Misawa, Japan – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:

An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to middle parts of next week, near or just to the south of the coast of southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves generally northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Typhoon 12W (Yagi)

According to the JTWC Warning number 23, sustained winds are 115 knots with gusts to near 140 knots

As indicated in animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery, typhoon 12W is beginning to weaken as it makes landfall over northern Hainan Island. However, eir imagery and radar imagery continue to show a round 21 NM eye with a near complete eyewall and spiral banding over the southern semicircle. Although the eyewall is beginning to erode over the western quadrant, the overall structure remains well-organized with extensive spiral banding over all quadrants.

TY 12W is forecast to track westward to west-northwestward through the forecast period. As the system tracks over Hainan Island, rapid weakening will commence due to interaction with the rugged terrain. After 12 hours, TY 12W will weaken further as it tracks across the Gulf of Tonkin, with landfall over northern Vietnam expected near 24 hours. As the system tracks into northern Vietnam, it will weaken rapidly and dissipate by 72 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 13W (Leepi) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 12, sustained winds are 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts shallow and increasingly disorganized convection shearing away from the low level circulation center (llcc). Weak equatorward outflow continues to persist but is doing little to aid in development as the system grapples with the changing environmental conditions of higher latitudes.

Increasing vertical wind shear values (29-42 knots) and plummeting sea surface temperatures will create an inhospitable environment that will hamper any further development. Interaction with a thermal ribbon begins at 24 hours as the system hurries toward the polar front, which will initiate extra-tropical transition.

By 36 hours, the polar front will bombard TS 13W from the northwest, at which point it will be considered to have fully transitioned to an extra-tropical cyclone. The system is forecast to maintain an intensity of 35 knots due to a combination of factors that include its proximity to strong ridging to the east, leading to a tightened pressure gradient along the east side, and compounded by the accelerating forward speeds (approximately 17-23 knots).

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 94W, which is located approximately 468 NM east-southeast of Kadena.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather, being referred to as Invest 95W, which is located approximately 1165 NM east-southeast of Guam.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a highly disorganized wave in the easterlies, with flaring deep convection across a broad region. A microwave image shows no discernible low-level circulation (llc) with isolated, disorganized convection. Recent scatterometer imagery shows a wave feature with no closed circulation at this time.

Environmental conditions are favorable, with broad easterly diffluent flow and low vertical wind shear.

Global models are in good agreement that 95W will continue to track west-northwestward and gradually consolidate, with a more defined, discrete llc forming over the next 36-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.