Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, September 22, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Pulasan), is located approximately 32 NM south-southwest of Busan, South Korea – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 17W, is located approximately 164 NM west of Taipei, Taiwan – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

>>> Offshore of Southern Mexico:

Invest 94E

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located less than 200 miles south of the coast of southern Mexico have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the system drifts slowly northeastward toward the coast of southern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent

>>> Central Portion of the east Pacific:

An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle part of the week while the system moves slowly eastward or northeastward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

>>> Approximately 1050 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

An area of low pressure located far southeast of Hawaii continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, while conditions aloft continue to produce good outflow. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form as it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph. By mid-week, conditions will become gradually less conducive for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Pulasan) – Final Warning 

According to the JTWC Warning number 20, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots

The system is currently undergoing frontogenesis due to baroclinic forcing, and extratropical transition will complete within the next twelve hours.

The system is currently forecast to track east-northeastward over land around 12 hours. While over land, the mountainous terrain of northern Japan will erode at the system vortex, weakening the circulation as TS 15W transits.

Tropical Cyclone 17W – Final Warning 

According to the JTWC Warning number 7, sustained winds are 25 knots…with gusts to near 34 knots

High vertical wind shear and topographic interaction as the system has tracked over land has caused the circulation to become nearly untrackable and weaken significantly to 25kts.

Enhanced north-northeasterly flow will continue in the northern Taiwan Strait as the southwest monsoon continues to break down during the climatological transition season.