Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, September 21, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Pulasan), is located approximately 32 NM south-southwest of Busan, South Korea – Final Warning

Tropical Cyclone 17W, is located approximately 93 NM west of Taipei, Taiwan

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

>>>Offshore of Southern Mexico:

Invest 94E

A broad area of low pressure is producing an area of showers and
thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this system while it meanders offshore the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week when the system begins to move slowly eastward or northeastward toward the coast of southern Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

>>>Central Portion of the east Pacific:

An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly eastward or northeastward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

>>> Approximately 1100 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

A broad and elongated area of low pressure located far southeast of Hawaii continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, while conditions aloft have produced increased outflow. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form as it moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. By mid-week, conditions will become gradually less conducive for development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Pulasan) – Final Warning 

According to the JTWC Warning number 20, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots

The system is currently undergoing frontogenesis due to baroclinic forcing, and extratropical transition will complete within the next twelve hours.

The system is currently forecast to track east-northeastward over land around 12 hours. While over land, the mountainous terrain of northern Japan will erode at the system vortex, weakening the circulation as TS 15W transits.

Tropical Cyclone 17W

According to the JTWC Warning number 6, sustained winds are 40 knots…with gusts to near 50 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts deep convection obscuring the low-level circulation center. moderate 10-15 knot north-northeasterly vertical wind shear has allowed the convection to become more centered over the low-level circulation center. the system appears to have stalled while in a confused and weak steering environment.

Tropical storm 17W will remain in a weak steering environment but eventually be influenced west-southwestward by low-level northeasterly flow through the Taiwan Strait. While in a quasi-stationary state, the system will slightly intensify to 35 knots while in a marginally favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures, weak outflow, and moderate shear that will persist for the next 36 hours.

After 24 hours, TS 17W will make landfall and dissipate after interacting with the topography of mainland China.