Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, September 20, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Pulasan), is located approximately 317 NM west-southwest of Chinhae, South Korea

Tropical Cyclone 17W, is located approximately 260 NM west-southwest of Kadena AB

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

>>> Central Portion of the East Pacific:

An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while it slowly moves generally northward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

>>> Approximately 1000 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

An area of low pressure may form well south of the Big Island next week. Some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Pulasan)  

According to the JTWC Warning number 18, sustained winds are 30 knots…with gusts to near 40 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery depicts a broad,
partially-exposed, low-level circulation (llc), with a large
near-symmetric area of deep convection over water to the southeast.
A microwave image shows an intense cluster of deep convection, with a weakly defined llc.

Tropical depression 15W has reemerged over water, just off the coast of China, and is expected to accelerate east-northeastward through the forecast period within the mid-latitude westerlies. The system will quickly interact with a strong frontal zone and increasing upper-level westerlies expected to push into South Korea over the next 12 hours. This front is expected to produce significant cold air advection and a tight pressure gradient across the Korean Peninsula and Sea of Japan.

TD 15W will transition into a low on this frontal boundary, and the combined effects of the two systems will generate 35-40 knot sustained winds across the coastal regions of South Korea, especially in the 12 to 24 hour period. TD will complete extra-tropical transition as it tracks under jet-strength upper-level winds over and east of the Korean Peninsula.

Tropical Cyclone 17W

According to the JTWC Warning number 2, sustained winds are 25 knots…with gusts to near 35 knots