Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, September 2, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Yagi)…is located approximately 238 NM north-northwest of Manila, Philippines

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 12W (Yagi)

According to the JTWC Warning number 7, sustained winds are 40 knots with gusts to near 50 knots

Tropical storm 12W made landfall and has tracked further inland over the mountainous terrain of Luzon over the past six hours. As depicted in animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and radar imagery, TS 12W has become increasingly disorganized, with more fragmented core convection and warming cloud top temperatures. The low-level circulation center (llcc) has been difficult to pinpoint but is based on a microwave image, which shows curved convective banding over the southern quadrant wrapping into a weak llcc.

TS 12W is gradually turning northwestward as it slowly transitions to the steering influence of a strong subtropical ridge entrenched over eastern china. Track speeds are expected to slow as it transitions due to the weaker steering environment between the two subtropical ridges.

The system is forecast to weaken slightly over the next 12 hours as it transits northern Luzon. After 12 hours, the system will strengthen steadily as it turns westward and accelerates away from Luzon. Environmental conditions will become increasingly favorable for rapid intensification (RI) after 24 hours, with warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear of less than 10 knots, strong equatorward outflow, and improved poleward venting. RI should continue through 84 hours, with a peak intensity of about 115 knots. After 84 hours, the system will gradually weaken as it approaches Hainan Island due to increasing frictional effects.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 01C, which is located approximately 289 NM southwest of Midway Island

This system is classified as a subtropical depression, generally characterized as having both tropical and
mid-latitude cyclone features.

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a highly asymmetric convective structure, with convective banding wrapping into a broad center. A microwave image reveals fragmented bands displaced over the eastern semicircle, with a weak, broad low-level circulation. Another image reveals an elongated circulation, with a weak core and maximum winds displaced over 90 NM to the north.

The system is located under a deep subtropical trough, with low to moderate (15 to 20 knot) vertical wind shear.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 25 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.