Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, September 17, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Pulasan), is located approximately 396 NM southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Pulasan) –

According to the JTWC Warning number 5, sustained winds are 65 knots…with gusts to near 80 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts a broad and
asymmetric low-level circulation center (llcc) with convection located to the eastern periphery of the system, which combined with a maximum wind radius of 145nm is characteristic of a monsoon depression. A tropical upper tropospheric trough (tutt) cell to the west is the primary source of subsident dry air which fully exposes the llcc. An earlier image confirms elevated wind speeds above 40 knots 145 NM from the llcc in the western semicircle of tropical storm 15W. The furthest extent of 35 knot winds is 260 NM northwest of center.

The structural definition of TS 15W persists and continues to carry the characteristics of a monsoon depression given the aforementioned broad circulation with a band of enhanced winds displaced 145-260 NM from center. Warnings continue due to the potential for TS 15W to transition into a tropical cyclone and potential impacts to Okinawa within 24-36 hours.

The track is forecast to continue northwestward while driven by a ridge to the north. The constructive interference of the tutt and the ridge enhances the track speed of TS 15W uncharacteristically higher than most tropical storm track speeds.

The system is anticipated to track south of Okinawa between 24-36 hours, continuing forward and making landfall shortly after 48 hours. The system is expected to maintain the current intensity of 45 knots through the next 24 hours before gradually weakening as the system struggles with dry air and the gradient between the system and the northern str.

The enhanced winds to the west would shift to wrap around the northern periphery of the system, potentially placing Okinawa within the highest radius of winds at that time. Given the large displacement between the center and the wind radii, any track deviations south may
result in larger impacts to Okinawa.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 355 NM north of Manila, Philippines

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a disorganized broad area of low-level circulation (llc) with convection over the South
China Sea. Another image shows 10-20 knot easterly winds over the northern semicircle of the broad circulation.

Global models indicate the system is expected to track westward where it will find favorable conditions for development, including low vertical wind shear of 5-10 knots, weak equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.