Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, September 16, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Pulasan), is located approximately 771 NM southeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 15W (Pulasan) –

According to the JTWC Warning number 2, sustained winds are 35 knots…with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery (msi) depicts an ill-defined low-level circulation center (llcc), with a diffuse and broad region of low wind speeds characteristic of a monsoon
depression.

The system remains asymmetric, with deep convection confined on the eastern side of the circulation due to continuing westerly vertical shear of 20-25 knots. The maximum wind band continues to extend more than 200 NM from the llcc in the eastern semicircle.

The overall structure has not changed significantly, and the initial intensity remains set at 35 nots. Upper-level outflow remains restricted to the east and south.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 355 NM north of Manila, Philippines

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a disorganized broad area of low-level circulation (llc) with convection over the South
China Sea. Another image shows 10-20 knot easterly winds over the northern semicircle of the broad circulation.

Global models indicate the system is expected to track westward where it will find favorable conditions for development, including low vertical wind shear of 5-10 knots, weak equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.