Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, September 15, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Bebinca), is located approximately 19 NM south-southeast of Shanghai, China – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Bebinca) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 25, sustained winds are 65 knots…with gusts to near 80 knots

A well-defined low level circulation center on composite radar loop clearly shows the system has made landfall, lending high confidence to the initial position.

The system is expected to continue west-northwestward into the rugged Chinese interior. land interaction, Increasing vertical wind shear, and cool dry air intrusion will lead to rapid decay and dissipation by 36 hours.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 97W, which is located approximately 32 NM west-northwest of Andersen AFB, Guam

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a broad area of disorganized, deep, fragmented, and flaring convection that are obscuring the low level circulation (llc).

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low to moderate (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, strong equatorward outflow, and very warm sea surface temperatures. Recent scatterometry data indicate an expansive wind field with the stronger winds along the northeast to eastern peripheries.

Global models indicate a northward track away from the Marianas and eventually northwestward around the perimeter of an evolving gyre-like pattern that will eventually extend from the northern Philippine sea to South China, dotted by at least three vortices, including 97W. a steady intensification over the next 12-36 hours is expected with winds away from the llc and not necessarily associated with central wind speed.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 273 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a defined, partially exposed low-level circulation, with persistent deep convection over the southwest quadrant. A bullseye image reveals a defined circulation, with predominantly 15-20 knot winds.

Upper-level analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with low to moderate (15-20 knot) northeasterly vertical wind shear and broad diffluent flow aloft.

Global models indicate a slow westward to northwestward track toward Luzon with gradual development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains medium.