Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, September 14, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 09E (Ileana), is located approximately 15 miles south-southeast of Los Mochis, Mexico

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Bebinca), is located approximately 370 NM east-southeast of Shanghai, China

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 09E (Ileana)

ILEANA DRIFTING NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND OVER SINALOA

According to the NHC Advisory number 10A…

Ileana is drifting toward the south near 2 mph (3 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later tonight or on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near, over the coastal region of northern Sinaloa during the next several hours, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin this evening, and Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Sunday. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The Mexican Navy station at Topolobampo recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Bebinca)

According to the JTWC Warning number 20, sustained winds are 65 knots…with gusts to near 80 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a compact, circular system with improved radial outflow and flaring convection in the northwest quadrant. the system is embedded in a region of dry air on nearly all sides due to ridging along the east and north sides and a tutt cell to the west-southwest.

TY 14W is emerging from its brief passage over land and will turn slightly more west-northwestward in its track owing to strong steering control from the ridge to the north. The tutt cell to the west-southwest is offering weak assistance to the equatorward outflow by pulling some of the exhaust westward into the tutt, which will boost the system intensity slightly and result in a peak intensity occurring near 18 hours over the warm waters of
the east china sea.

However, the dry, subsident air under the tutt in the path of the typhoon will hinder any significant development potential. Landfall is expected by 36 hours near Shanghai, after which dissipation will occur inland by 72 hours.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather being referred to as Invest 97W, which is located approximately 106 NM west-southwest of Andersen AFB, Guam

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a broad, elongated area of turning obscured by flaring, disorganized, deep convection. The
position is based on the centroid of the broad circulation and extrapolated from surface wind observations on Guam.

Analysis indicates 97W is in a favorable environment for development in a narrow zone with low to moderate (10-20 knot) vertical wind shear, strong divergence aloft and very warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models indicate that 97W will become one of two vortices along the eastern periphery of an evolving monsoon depression (md) that extends from the northern Philippine Sea into the South China Sea. 97W will generally track north- to northwestward along the perimeter of the md.

Although conditions are favorable, the lack of a distinct, consolidated low level circulation center at this time will serve to limit the potential development.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.