Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, September 13, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Bebinca), is located approximately 194 NM east of Kadena AB, Okinawa

Tropical Cyclone 09E (Ileana), is located approximately 55 miles northeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 09E (Ileana)

CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS

According to the NHC Advisory number 7…

Ileana is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A steady northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is forecast to move near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this evening, and
over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Bebinca)

According to the JTWC Warning number 17A, sustained winds are 50 knots…with gusts to near 65 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts persistent convection that has built over the low-level circulation center (llcc) over the last six hours with a band of moist deep convection wrapping around the northeastern side. to the southwest, a sharp band of subsident dry air intercepts the tropical storm (ts) core from a tropical upper tropospheric trough (tutt) cell positioned to the west. Additionally, the tutt cell continues to induce moderate 10-15kt vertical wind shear wearing at the system vortex, according to wind shear analysis.

Tropical storm 14W will remain under the steering influence of the ridge to the north, driving the system in a northwestward direction through the end of the forecast as it rounds the ridge. Landfall is expected between 48-72 hours. The overall track speed is enhanced by the tutt cell propelling the circulation in the same northwestward direction as the ridge, but as the cell permeates west the interaction will decrease in the late-term forecast resulting in slower track speed.

The intensity forecast is highly dependent on the interaction and proximity to the tutt cell, but at this time the interaction is expected to decrease over the next 24 hours. While entering in an increasingly favorable environment, the system will remain in warm 29-30 knot sea surface temperatures, favorable upper-level divergence, and decreasing vertical wind shear allowing for gradual re-intensification to a peak of 70 knots by 48 hours, possibly reaching 75 knots between 24-48 hours and degrading just prior to 72 hours during landfall.