Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, September 12, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Bebinca), is located approximately 291 NM south-west-southwest of Iwo To

Tropical Cyclone 09E (Ileana), is located approximately 160 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 09E (Ileana)

ILEANA A LITTLE STRONGER…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY

According to the NHC Advisory number 3…

Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and over the Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. However, weakening is expected to begin by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to produce 4-6 inches with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, Tropical Storm Ileana may result in 4-6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce between 6-8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area Friday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Bebinca)

According to the JTWC Warning number 13, sustained winds are 40 knots…with gusts to near 50 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts deep convective banding wrapping tightly into a vortex center. dry air and  15-20 knots of vertical wind shear from a tropical upper tropospheric trough (tutt) cell intrude into the center of the circulation from the northwest, acting as an inhibitor to rapid intensification.

Alternatively, the tutt cell is enhancing upper-level outflow poleward which supports the gradual intensification alongside warm sea surface temperatures to overcome the moderate vertical wind shear.

Tropical storm 14W will no longer be under the steering influence of the ridge to the southwest as it continues to move away and will track northwestward while driven by a ridge to the north that extends from the Korean Peninsula to the east of Japan through the first 48 hours of the forecast before altering course west-northwestward steered by an extension of the ridge through the end of the forecast period.

While tracking northwestward the system will intensify gradually for the first 36 hours due to favorable sea surface temperatures and strong poleward and equatorward outflow, however the rate of intensification is dampened by the close proximity of the TUTT cell to the northwest.

The TUTT cell is expected to drift to the west-southwest away from TS 14W and the storm track, allowing the conditions to be favorable for rapid intensification as the system passes approximately 100 NM north of Okinawa to a peak of 105 knots by 72 hours. TS 14W will make landfall between 72-96 hours, resulting in rapid weakening and dry air cutting off the fuel source to the system as it continues dissipating inland.