Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, September 11, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Bebinca), is located approximately 358 NM northwest of Navsta, Guam

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:

Invest 93E

A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and toward the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Central Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 14W (Bebinca)

According to the JTWC Warning number 9, sustained winds are 50 knots…with gusts to near 65 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a symmetric area of deep convection displaced over the northeastern quadrant of the
low-level circulation (llc), with a partially exposed llc. A microwave image reveals curved banding along the eastern semicircle wrapping into the northern quadrant of a ragged low-level circulation center. A bullseye image shows a defined circulation center, with an extensive swath of 25-30 knot winds and a small patch of 33-34 knot winds over the northeast quadrant.

Animated water vapor imagery and total precipitable water imagery indicate an extensive region of dry air west and northwest of the system associated with a broad upper low and subsidence. this dry air is encroaching on the western semicircle of the system, hindering convective development.

Tropical storm 14W is forecast to track north-northwestward through 36 hours along the western periphery of a deep-layered ridge. The system is expected to intensify at a slower-than-climatological rate, primarily due to the presence of dry air over the western semicircle. TS 14W will consolidate quickly after 36 hours as the system becomes more vertically aligned, develops centralized convection, and re-moistens.

After 36 hours, the system will track generally west-northwestward as it transitions toward the steering influence of a strong ridge positioned over the east China Sea and Japan. Environmental conditions will favor rapid intensification (ri), therefore, TS 14W will increase intensity from 65 knots at 48 hours to 95 knots at 72 hours, with further intensification to 115 knots by 96 knots as the system tracks past Okinawa. TS 14W should make landfall near Shanghai, China near 108 hours while weakening slightly due to land interaction.