Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, August 30, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)…is located about 1155 miles west of Honolulu, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)…is located approximately 104 NM east-southeast of Iwakuni, Japan

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Asna)…is located approximately 55 NM south of Karachi, Pakistan

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones…nor any areas of disturbed weather under investigation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Central North Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HONE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
STRENGTHEN SOON…TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS

According to the CPHC Advisory number 34

The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), with a
turn to the northwest accompanied by a slowing of the forward speed
expected in the next 12 to 24 hours. Hone is then expected to continue on a northwest track through Sunday. On the forecast track, Hone is expected to pass south of Kure, Midway and Pearl and Hermes Atolls Saturday night into Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours with Hone becoming a tropical storm Saturday.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)

According to the JTWC Warning number 38, sustained winds are 30 knots with gusts to near 40 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a composite radar loop show continued erosion and unraveling of convective tops and feeder bands as the system made another landfall – this time over the northern tip of Shikoku.

Analysis indicates a highly unfavorable environment due to frictional
effects of the rugged island terrain.

Tropical depression Shanshan will continue to track just south of eastward along the northern periphery of the steering ridge across Shikoku, exit into and drift across the Kii Channel before making a final landfall over southern Honshu near Wakayama around 20 hours.

Afterward, a secondary ridge to the west will compete for steering and place the system in a quasi-stationary mode as it approaches the central Japanese Alps. The unfavorable environment will eventually erode the system to dissipation by 36 hours, possibly sooner.

Tropical Cyclone 02A (Asna)

According to the JTWC Warning number 4, sustained winds are 40 knots with gusts to near 50 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery and a composite radar loop shows a small system in the Arabian Sea with flaring convective bands feeding into a partially exposed low level circulation (llc). The central convection is displaced to the southwest due to moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear.

Analysis indicates a marginally favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and strong equatorward outflow offset by moderate vertical wind shear and dry air intrusion at the low levels.

TC 02A will continue to track more westward under the steering ridge toward the Gulf of Oman. As the system tracks in-phase with the upper level wind flow, relative vertical wind shear will weaken allowing the system to maintain its current intensity. After 36 hours, vertical wind shear will once again increase, this plus the persistent influx of dry air will lead to dissipation by 48 hours, possibly sooner.