Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, August 26, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)…is located about 1100 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 08E (Hector)…is located about 1170 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)…is located about 280 miles southwest of Lihue, HI, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)…is located approximately 299 NM south of Sasebo, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)

GILMA STILL A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN

According to the NHC Advisory number 36

Gilma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin soon, with a faster rate of weakening expected later this week. Gilma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the central Pacific basin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).

Tropical Cyclone 08E (Hector)

HECTOR HOLDING STEADY

According to the NHC Advisory number 6

Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so followed by gradual weakening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

Central North Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)

HONE CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI AND MOVING AWAY FROM HAWAII TOWARD OPEN WATERS

According to the CPHC Advisory number 19

Hone is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Hone will continue moving away from the main Hawaiian Islands, and pass well north of Johnston Island Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Only gradual weakening is expected the next couple of days. Hone is expected to become a post-tropical low on Thursday, then dissipate on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)

According to the JTWC Warning number 23, sustained winds are 105 knots with gusts to near 130 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts persistent deep convective banding surrounding a developing compact eye that is intermittently obscured by cirrus aloft but has been continuously evident in recent microwave satellite imagery.

Improvements indicate that the intensification trend continues, upper-level feature track winds and animated water vapor imagery reveal persistent northeasterly vertical wind shear awaiting the system just downstream.

Typhoon Shanshan is expected turn poleward over the next 48 hours, then round the axis of the steering ridge and turn eastward toward Kyushu thereafter. The current forecast places the landfall point south of Sasebo just after 72 hours. During the extended forecast period, the system will move inland and slowly accelerate poleward and eastward ahead of a developing mid-latitude trough.

Extratropical transition is expected to begin by 120 hours as the system interacts with the mid-latitude trough, although it remains too early to tell whether the transition process will continue or the system will dissipate over land beyond 120 hours, as a fair proportion of the available deterministic and ensemble model guidance indicates.

The current intensification trend is expected to continue for the next 24 hours, supported by passage over very warm water and favorable equatorward outflow. However, intensification will be limited as vertical wind shear increases due to persistent northeasterly flow aloft and as upper-level outflow decreases, partially due to filling of a tropical upper tropospheric trough cell to the south that is currently supporting the system. Passage over land will lead to steady weakening after 72 hours.