Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, August 25, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)…is located about 1310 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 08E (Hector)…is located about 950 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)…is located about 175 miles south-southeast of Honolulu, HI, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)…is located approximately 416 NM south-southeast of Sasebo, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)

GILMA EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE IT NEARS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN

According to the NHC Advisory number 32

Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, Gilma is forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches the central Pacific basin.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

Tropical Cyclone 08E (Hector)

HECTOR HEADING WESTWARD

According to the NHC Advisory number 2

Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

Central North Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)

HONE WEAKENING BUT STILL A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE BIG ISLAND

According to the CPHC Advisory number 15

Hone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Hone will pass well south of Oahu and Kauai through Monday morning. Hone is expected to pass well north of Johnston Island around mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Hone is expected to become a tropical storm by early Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

RAINFALL: Rain bands associated with Hone will continue to bring widespread rainfall to portions of the Hawaiian islands this evening, with the rainfall potential gradually diminishing overnight.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)

According to the JTWC Warning number 19, sustained winds are 80 knots with gusts to near 100 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery shows a medium-sized system that continued to slowly consolidate as evidenced by cooling convective tops over the cold dense overcast (cdo) that has recently developed a pinhole eye. A robust poleward outflow, a tutt cell and dry air intrusion along the western flank are also evident on the eir loop.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with warm along-track sea surface temperatures and a strong, efficient ventilation aloft offset by moderate relative vws, subsidence from the tutt cell to the west, and cold dry air intrusion at the lower levels.

Typhoon Shanshan will continue on a fishbone northwestward track as the steering ridge builds. After 36 hours, it will turn more northward as it crests the ridge axis and after 48 hours, accelerate northeastward on the poleward side of the ridge and by 72 hours, make landfall over Shikoku then track across Honshu and exit into the Sea of Japan around 90 hours. By 120 hours, it will make landfall over the southern tip of Hokkaido.

The favorable environment will fuel a gradual intensification to a peak of 110 knots by 48 hours as the poleward outflow, enhanced by the strong westerlies, is amplified. afterward, land interaction, increasing vertical wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan will rapidly erode the system down to 45 knots by 120 hours. Concurrently by 72 hours, TY 11W will begin extra-tropical transition, and becomes a strong gale-force cold core low with an expanding wind field by 120 hours.