Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, August 24, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)…is located about 1530 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)…is located about 105 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)…is located approximately 131 NM west of Iwo-to, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)

GILMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING

According to the NHC Advisory number 28

Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening could occur through tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Sunday, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane into early next week. Steady weakening will then continue through the middle of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

>>> Central Portion of the east Pacific:

Invest 92E

Shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the west of an area of low pressure centered several hundred miles to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development of the low during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend or early next week while moving toward the west or west-northwest at around 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Central North Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)

TROPICAL STORM STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH…TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND

According to the CPHC Advisory number 11A

Hone is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue into Monday, with slight slowing expected early next week.

Maximum sustained winds were measured by the aircraft near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest strengthening is possible over the next 24 to 36 hours, with Hone holding near hurricane intensity Sunday into Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected on the Big Island, beginning as early as this evening and continuing through early Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes.

RAINFALL: Hone is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches over mainly windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the smaller islands, mainly windward.

SURF: Surf associated with large swells generated by Hone will quickly build today through Sunday as Hone continues westward. Expect dangerous conditions with life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)

According to the JTWC Warning number 14, sustained winds are 65 knots with gusts to near 80 knots

Animated enhanced infrared (eir) satellite imagery shows a medium sized system that has maintained its typhoon intensity with deep convective top temperatures over the cold dense overcast (cdo) cycling up and down and obscuring the low level circulation (llc). A robust poleward outflow and dry air intrusion along the western flank are also evident on the eir loop.

Analysis indicates an overall marginally favorable environment with warm along-track sea surface temperatures and strong ventilation aloft offset by moderate relative vertical wind shear and cold dry air intrusion at the lower levels.

Typhoon Shanshan will continue on a northwestward track as the steering ridge builds. After 48 hours, it will turn more northward as it crests the ridge axis and after 72 hours, will accelerate northeastward on the poleward side of the ridge, make landfall just southwest of Kyoto, track across Honshu, then exit into the Sea of Japan around 96 hours. By 120 hours, it will reach the southern tip of the Russian Island of Sakhalin.

The marginally favorable environment will fuel a gradual intensification to a peak of 105 knots by 72 hours, as poleward outflow continues to increase. After 72 hours, land interaction and cool sea surface temperatures in the Sea of Japan will rapidly erode the system down to 45 knots by 120 hours. Concurrently by 96 hours, TY 11W will begin extra-tropical transition, and becoming a strong gale-force cold core low with an expanding wind field by 120 hours.