Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, August 23, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)…is located about 1255 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)…is located about 380 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)…is located approximately 288 NM south of Iwo-to, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)

GILMA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD

According to the NHC Advisory number 23

Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A generally westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

>>> Central Portion of the east Pacific:

Invest 92E

Shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the west of an
area of low pressure centered several hundred miles to the southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Upper-level winds are forecast to decrease over the low during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend or early next week while moving toward the west or west-northwest at
around 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Central North Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)

HONE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND

According to the CPHC Advisory number 7A

Hone is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This motion toward the west is expected to continue over the next several days as the forward speed gradually slows. On the forecast track, the center of
Hone is expected to pass near or south of the Big Island Saturday night into early Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and may become a hurricane by Sunday, followed by weakening late Sunday and beyond.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area later Saturday into Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest where they blow downslope from higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes.

RAINFALL: Hone is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches over mainly windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the smaller islands, mainly windward.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Hone are expected to begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)

According to the JTWC Warning number 11, sustained winds are 65 knots with gusts to near 80 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts Typhoon 11W (Shanshan) with a very ragged eye-like feature, with vigorous bursts of convection in the northern semicircle. The dry air to the west and southwesterly shear remain acting on the system, keeping the western periphery free of convection.

Environmental analysis indicates that 11W is currently in a marginally favorable environment for further intensification characterized by moderate poleward and equatorward outflow aloft, moderate vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

11W is forecast to continue tracking northward along the western periphery of the ridging to the east through 24 hours.thereafter, a subtropical ridge is expected to build east of Honshu which will turn the system northwestward through 72 hours. Near 72 hours, 11W is forecast to begin rounding the ridge and track northeastward for the remainder of the forecast period with landfall occurring in Japan near 108 hours.

Regarding intensity, 11W is forecast to steadily intensify to 80 knots at 36 hours. The rate of intensification is capped by the presence of the tutt cell currently positioned to the northwest, increasing vertical wind shear on the system. After 36 hours, the tutt cell will move into a more favorable position and allow 11W to strengthen as shear drastically drops.

An increase of 40 knots from 36 hours (80 knots) to 72 hours (120 knots) is forecast in response to the extremely favorable environmental conditions. As 11W begins to round the ridge, a peak intensity could occur greater than 120 knots (between 72 and 96 hours). In any case, 120 knots is forecast at  96 hours  before making landfall. After landfall, terrain interaction will rapidly weaken 11W to around 60 knots near the end of the forecast period.