Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, August 22, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)…is located about 1080 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)…is located about 815 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)…is located approximately 314 NM west-northwest of Tinian

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)

GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE INTO FRIDAY BUT MORE WEAKENING LIES AHEAD

According to the NHC Advisory number 19

Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). Gradual acceleration toward the west-northwest and then west is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through much of the upcoming weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

>>> Central Portion of the east Pacific:

Invest 92E

An area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mostly to the west of its center.

Environmental conditions are generally conducive for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Central North Pacific: 

Tropical Cyclone 01C (Hone)

HONE CONTINUING TO MOVE WESTWARD TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS…TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND

According to the CPHC Advisory number 3

Hone is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Hone is expected to pass near or south of the Big Island Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area later Saturday into Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest where they blow downslope from higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes.

RAINFALL: Hone is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches over mainly windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the smaller islands, mainly windward.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Hone are expected to begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)

According to the JTWC Warning number 7, sustained winds are 55 knots with gusts to near 70 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts tropical storm 11W (Shanshan) with a large (about 250 NM in diameter) symmetrical central dense overcast (cdo) obscuring the low-level circulation center (llcc). The system has remained quasi-stationary for the past twelve hours as the cdo has continued to expand over the storm.

Environmental analysis indicates that 11W is in a favorable environment for further intensification characterized by moderate equatorward outflow aloft, low vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

11W is forecast to stay within a weak steering environment for the next 12 hours or so as ridging to the east begins to build. Once the ridge has sufficiently formed, 11W will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge through 48 hours. Near 48 hours, a subtropical ridge (str) is expected to form east of Honshu and drive the system northwestward through 96 hours. As 11W begins to round the str, it will track northward as it approaches the Kii Channel before making landfall around 120 hours.

Regarding intensity, 11W is forecast to steadily intensify to around 65 kts, at 36 hours as low vertical wind shear and outflow remain conducive. After 36 hours, a tutt cell is expected to propagate southwestward which will hinder the outflow of the system and increase the vertical wind shear to around 25 knots. This will cause a stagnant intensity through 72 hours. After 72 hours, the tutt cell will have passed by, allowing outflow and shear to improve. 11W is then forecast to continue intensifying to around 105 knots before it makes landfall in Japan.