Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Wednesday, August 21, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)…is located about 1005 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)…is located approximately 263 NM west-northwest of Tinian

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)

GILMA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE

According to the NHC Advisory number 15

Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph, and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Gilma is expected to become a major hurricane overnight or on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

>>> Well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:

Invest 91E

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization today in association with an area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. However, only a slight improvement in organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm later tonight or early Thursday while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.

This system is expected to strengthen as it moves into the central Pacific basin on Thursday and moves near the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend or early next week.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though it remains too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of potential impacts.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

>>> Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure centered several hundred miles southwest of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next two to three days while the system moves west-northwestward into the central portion of the East Pacific, well offshore of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Approximately 1,000 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

Invest 91E

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization today in association with an area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. However, only a slight improvement in organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm later tonight or early Thursday while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. This system is expected to strengthen as it moves into the central Pacific basin on Thursday and moves near the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend or early next week.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though it remains too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of potential impacts.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 11W (Shanshan)

According to the JTWC Warning number 3, sustained winds are 40 knots with gusts to near 50 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a rapidly consolidating system with flaring deep convection in the central dense overcast and fragmented, formative bands wrapping from the southern periphery into a mostly obscured low level circulation center (llcc).

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures and moderate radial outflow, offset by moderate vertical wind
shear.

TS 11W will track more north-northwestward along the western periphery of the steering ridge toward Japan. The favorable environment will promote gradual intensification to 60 knots by 96 hours. Afterward, increasing poleward outflow as the system approaches the prevailing westerlies, will fuel rapid intensification to 85 knots by 120 hours.