Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Tuesday, August 20, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)…is located about 840 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 10W (Jongdari)…is located approximately 94 NM southwest of Osan AB, South Korea – Final Warning

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)

GILMA ALMOST A HURRICANE

According to the NHC Advisory number 10

Gilma is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gilma could become a hurricane tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

>>> Well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:

Invest 90E/91E

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with two disturbances over the western portion of the East Pacific basin. These systems are expected to merge tonight, and gradual development is anticipated after they merge. A tropical depression will likely form during the next day or so while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then expected to strengthen as it moves across the central Pacific basin late this week and move near the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend or early next week.

While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

>>> Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions should support slow development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward over open waters, well offshore of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Approximately 1450 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

Invest 90E/91E

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with two disturbances over the western portion of the East Pacific basin. These systems are expected to merge tonight, and gradual development is anticipated after they merge. A tropical depression will likely form during the next day or so while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. the system is then expected to strengthen as it moves across the central pacific basin late this week and move near the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend or early next week.

While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 10W (Jongdari) – Final Warning

According to the JTWC Warning number 8, sustained winds are 20 knots with gusts to near 30 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a small system in the Yellow Sea undergoing decay with shallow, fragmented, albeit flaring convection, in and around the central dense overcast. The initial position is placed with high confidence based on a defined low level circulation (llc) evident on a composite weather radar loop, that lined up perfectly with a microwave llc feature.

Analysis indicates an unfavorable environment with warm sea surface temperatures greatly offset by weak poleward outflow and moderate relative vertical wind shear.

Tropical depression 10W will track northward then north-northeastward as it rounds the western edge of the ridge, making landfall near the DMZ shortly after 12 hours, drag across North Korea, then exit into the Sea of Japan before 24 hours.

The unfavorable environment will continue to gradually erode the system down to 25 knots by 12 hours. After landfall, the addition of frictional effects from the rugged terrain will lead to dissipation by 24 hours, likely sooner.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 90W, which is located approximately 115 NM north-northeast of Guam

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a consolidating llc and a more symmetric circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals a favorable environment for further development with a low (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear, good equatorward outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Global models indicate steady development with a northwestward track over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 90S, which is located approximately 212 NM west of Diego Garcia

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a poorly-organized (llc) and an asymmetric area of circulation (llc).

Environmental analysis reveals an unfavorable environment for further development with high (40-50 knot) vertical wind shear, weak poleward outflow, and cool sea surface temperatures.

Global models are in agreement that Invest 90S will not continue to develop as it generally tracks westward over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.