Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Monday, August 19, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)…is located about 705 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Tropical Cyclone 10W (Jongdari)…is located approximately 387 NM south-southwest of Chinhae, South Korea

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)

GILMA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE

According to the NHC Advisory number 6

Gilma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). By tonight, a
Gilma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue
through mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional slow strengthening is likely for the next day or two. Gilma is forecast to approach hurricane strength in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

>>> Well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:

Invest 90E

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii has changed little during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to meander slowly northward or northeastward during the next few days, before accelerating west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin by the latter portion of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

>>>  Western Portion of the East Pacific:

A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is located well
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system has not become any better organized today. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest for the next few days, and interactions with either EP90 to its west or Gilma to its east could limit the potential for formation. Regardless, a tropical depression could form within the next few
days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent

>>>  Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:

An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of this week. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Approximately 1200 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

Invest 90E

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii has changed little during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast
to meander slowly northward or northeastward during the next few days, before accelerating west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin by the latter portion of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 08W (Jongdari)

According to the JTWC Warning number 4, sustained winds are 35 knots with gusts to near 45 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts tropical storm 10W (Jongdari) with a well-defined, yet completely exposed low-level circulation center (llcc). 10W continues to have very little associated convection, most likely due to the high northerly vertical wind shear in the area preventing it from building over the center.

Environmental analysis indicates that 10W is in a marginally unfavorable environment for further development characterized by weak equatorward outflow aloft, moderate to high vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

10W is forecast to continue tracking northward, along the western periphery of the ridge to the east through 24 hours and turn north-northeastward through 36 hours as it begins to round the ridge. The system is expected to track near the western coast of South Korea as it dissipates.

High vertical wind shear, low ocean heat content, and the lack of convection will all aid in preventing any further intensification of the system. As a result, 10W will begin weakening for the remainder of the forecast period with dissipation expected around 36 hours, off the western coast of northern South Korea.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 90S, which is located approximately 219 NM west of Diego Garcia

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an asymmetric area of circulation flaring convection, with a poorly organized low level circulation.

Environmental analysis reveals an area that is marginally unfavorable for development with, warm sea surface temperatures, high (30-40 knot) vertical wind shear, and weak equatorward outflow aloft.

Global models are in agreement that Invest 90S will not continue to develop and generally track westward over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.