Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Sunday, August 18, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 10W (Jongdari)…is located approximately 133 NM southwest of Kadena AB

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)…is located about 605 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

Tropical Cyclone 07E (Gilma)

GILMA HEADING WESTWARD AND HOLDING STEADY

According to the NHC Advisory number 3

Gilma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Gilma is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

>>> Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:

Yet another area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico over the next few days. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward throughout the week into the Central portion of the East Pacific basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Approximately 1700 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is forecast to interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest over the next several days, which could limit additional development if this system does not become the dominant disturbance. Regardless, a tropical depression could still form during the middle part of the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the western portion of the East Pacific basin before it possibly merges with the disturbance currently located further west.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent

>>> Approximately 1300 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

Another area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is currently associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms on its western side. This disturbance is forecast to interact with the disturbance located to its east. If this system becomes the dominant disturbance, some gradual development is possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week while it initially moves slowly over the western portion of the East Pacific. A faster west-northwestward motion into the Central Pacific basin is likely by the latter portion of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 08W (Jongdari)

According to the JTWC Warning number 1, sustained winds are 25 knots with gusts to near 35 knots

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 90S, which is located approximately 276 NM west-northwest of Diego Garcia

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an area of flaring convection, with a partially exposed low level circulation with persistent convection.

Environmental analysis reveals an area that is marginally favorable for development with, warm sea surface temperatures, high (30-40 knot) vertical wind shear, and good equatorward outflow aloft.

Global models are in agreement that invest 90S will continue to gradually intensify and generally track southwestward over the next 24-
48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 22 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.