Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, August 17, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 08W (Ampil)…is located approximately 412 NM east-southeast of Misawa, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>>  Well Offshore Southwestern Mexico:

Invest 99E

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a distinct area of
showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization.
Upper-level winds are forecast to be generally conducive for additional development of this system through the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph across the central portion of the eastern Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Approximately 1900 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure located more than one thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. While this system may interact with another area of low pressure to its west-southwest over the next several days, some gradual development of this system is forecast if it becomes the dominant disturbance. A tropical depression is likely form during the middle part of next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the western portion of the basin and into the Central Pacific basin by the end of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent

>>> Approximately 1100 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

A small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is associated with some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible this weekend into early next week while it moves slowly over the western portion of the East Pacific or Central Pacific basin. By the middle of next week, this system could merge with a larger system developing to its east.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 08W (Ampil)

According to the JTWC Warning number 22, sustained winds are 65 knots with gusts to near 80 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a further weakening Typhoon 08W (Ampil), with progressing development of the
vertical tilt, due to increasing shear. While the intensity of the system decreased, there’s an expanding wind field.

TY 08W (Ampil) is currently forecast to continue tracking northeastward at 19 knots and increase in speed throughout the forecast period, while rapidly weakening. The system is currently transiting over colder water, as well as no remaining ocean heat content combined, while being exposed to shear of 25 knots, making it a clearly unfavorable environment for any tropical redevelopment.

However, as the system begins its extratropical transition, it will become embedded in the jet stream maxima, allowing it for a potential intensification. TY Ampil is currently forecast to weaken down to tropical storm strength of 50 knot by 24 hours and retain that intensity, while it completes the extratropical transition.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather in the NW Pacific Ocean, being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 42 NM east of Taipei.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a himiwari-9 IR image reveals an area of scattered convection along the northern periphery of a very weakly-defined circulation.

Environmental analysis is marginally unfavorable, characterized by high vertical wind shear (25-30 knots) and weak equatorward outflow, offset by high sea surface temperatures.

Deterministic and ensemble models indicate that the area of convection (98W) will transit northeastward as it slowly develops over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains low.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 90S, which is located approximately 151 NM west-northwest of Diego Garcia

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an area of flaring convection, with a partially exposed low level circulation with persistent convection.

Environmental analysis reveals an area that is marginally favorable for development with, warm sea surface temperatures, high (30-40 knot) vertical wind shear, and good equatorward outflow aloft.

Global models are in agreement that invest 90S will continue to gradually intensify and generally track southwestward over the next 24-
48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 22 to 28 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is downgraded to low.