Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, August 16, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 08W (Ampil)…is located approximately 216 NM east-northeast of Yokosuka, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>>  Well Offshore Southwestern Mexico:

Invest 99E

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the west of its center. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development of this system over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the central portion of the East Pacific basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

>>> Western Portion of the East Pacific:

An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the western portion of the East Pacific and into the Central Pacific basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Approximately 850 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some development of this system early next week while moving westward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…30 percent

>>> Approximately 1350 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle part of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the western portion of the East Pacific and into the Central Pacific basin.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 08W (Ampil)

According to the JTWC Warning number 19, sustained winds are 95 knots with gusts to near 115 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery shows an intense system with a symmetrical cold dense overcast (cdo) with a sharply-outlined 22 NM eyewall. An enhanced infrared satellite animation shows slight warming of the cdo convective tops and some loosening of the compact feeder bands.

Analysis indicates a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear, strong dual outflow, and warm sea surface temperatures.

Typhoon Ampil has crested the ridge axis and will begin to accelerate northeastward. Increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures will gradually weaken the system to 90 knots by 24 hours.

Afterward, a more rapid erosion is expected. Concurrently by 36 hours, it will begin extra-tropical transition and by 48 hours will transform into a cold-core, storm-force frontal low with an expanding wind field.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather in the NE Pacific Ocean, being referred to as Invest 98W, which is located approximately 51 NM east of Taipei.

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery and a microwave image reveals a poorly organized llcc, as well as flaring convection along an area of
broad and weak circulation.

Environmental analysis is marginally unfavorable characterized by high vertical wind shear (25-30 knots), weak equatorward outflow offset by high sea surface temperatures.

Deterministic models indicate that the area of convection (98W) will slowly develop over the next 48-72 hours as it transits northeastward.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 13 to 18 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 90S, which is located approximately 54 NM northeast of Diego Garcia

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an area of flaring convection, with a partially exposed low level circulation with persistent convection.

Environmental analysis reveals an area that is marginally favorable for development with, warm sea surface temperatures, high (30-40 knot) vertical wind shear, and good equatorward outflow aloft.

Global models are in good agreement that Invest 90S will continue to gradually intensify and generally track southwestward over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.