Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Thursday, August 15, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 08W (Ampil)…is located approximately 121 NM south-southeast of Yokosuka, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Offshore Southwestern Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…80 percent

>>>Western Portion of the East Pacific:

A broad area of low pressure could form by this weekend well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during the early and middle parts of next week while it moves generally westward across the western portion of the East Pacific.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

>>> Approximately 1050 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some development of this system this weekend or early next week while moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 08W (Ampil)

According to the JTWC Warning number 15, sustained winds are 115 knots with gusts to near 140 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts Typhoon 08W (Ampil) with a large ragged eye and a symmetric central dense overcast outlining the eye. The eye has become increasingly more well-defined over the past 6 hours as the system continues its track northward.

Environmental analysis indicates that 08W is in a highly favorable environment for further intensification characterized by strong radial outflow aloft, very low vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures.

08W is forecast to continue tracking along the western periphery of the ridge to the east through 24 hours. Near 24 hours, the system is forecast to begin a turn northeastward about 75 NM southeast of Yokosuka as it rounds the ridge. After 24 hours, 08w is expected to continue tracking along the northwestern and northern peripheries of the ridge through the remainder of the forecast period. Extratropical transition is forecast to start around 72 hours with completion by 96 hours.

Regarding the intensity forecast, 08W is forecast to rapidly intensify through 24 hours with a peak intensity of 120 knots in response to the highly conducive environment. after 24 hours, vertical wind shear is expected to increase to around 15-20 knots and sea surface temperatures are expected to quickly drop. This will initiate the weakening trend, which will persist through the remainder of the forecast period.

Around 60 hours, sea surface temperatures will drop and 08W will rapidly degrade in response. An intensity of 45 knots is forecast, as extratropical transition completes near the 96 hours mark.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather in the South Indian Ocean, being referred to as Invest 90S, which is located approximately 155 NM north-northeast of Diego Garcia

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts an area of flaring convection, with a partially exposed low level circulation with persistent convection.

Environmental analysis reveals an area that is marginally favorable for development with, warm sea surface temperatures, high (30-40 knot) vertical wind shear, and good equatorward outflow aloft.

Global models are in good agreement that Invest 90S will continue to gradually intensify and generally track southwestward over the next 24-48 hours.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 28 to 33 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high.