Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Saturday, August 10, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maria)…is located approximately 286 NM southeast of Misawa, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

>>> South of Southern Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Beyond that time, the system is forecast to move into a more stable
environment, limiting additional development. Regardless of formation, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of coastal southern and southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maria)

According to the JTWC Warning number 16, sustained winds are 45 knots with gusts to near 55 knots

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed low-level circulation (llc), with well-organized low-level banding wrapping tightly into an obscured center.

Although satellite images reveal weak deep convective structure, other images shows an extensive ring of 40-45 knot winds, with an area of 45-50 knot winds over the eastern quadrant and a maximum wind value of 50 knots. Additionally, some images show 40-45 knot winds over the eastern semicircle.

Environmental conditions are favorable, with robust poleward outflow into a jet stream to the north, low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface values.

Tropical storm 06W has slowed and turned northward over the past six hours, but is forecast to gradually turn northwestward as the sub-tropical ridge builds to the north.

The system is expected to intensify slightly within the next 12 hours due to the overall favorable conditions. After 24 hours, however, the system will weaken steadily as it approaches the rugged coast of northern Honshu, tracking over cooler water along the coast. Heavy rains are expected along the northeastern coast of Honshu due to the warm, moist easterly flow and orographic effects.

Significant further weakening will occur as TS 06W tracks over the Japanese Alps, with the system emerging over the Sea of Japan near 48 hours as a weak tropical depression. 06W (Maria) will dissipate quickly by 72 hours as it tracks west-northwestward over cooler sea surface temperatures.

>>> There’s an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Pacific, being referred to Invest 95W, which is located approximately 700 NM east of Iwo-To, Japan

Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts low-level cloud lines wrapping into a defined low-level circulation, with an intense region of deep convection sheared about 35 NM to the south. Partial images indicate an extensive swath of 20-25 knot low-level winds along the southern and eastern peripheries of the disturbance.

Environmental conditions are marginally favorable with moderate to high (20-30 knot) northerly vertical wind shear offset by vigorous easterly outflow into a tutt cell near 29N 158E. Sea surface temperatures are conducive.

Although environmental conditions will remain marginal over the next two days, global models indicate a tropical depression or weak tropical storm may spin up aided by the strong low-level flow present. Additionally, environmental conditions may improve briefly before the system transitions into a subtropical system tracking poleward over cooler sea surface temperatures.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.

The potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.