Current Snapshot

The Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC Global) Friday, August 9, 2024, Tropical Cyclone Activity Report…for the Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and adjacent Seas

Current Tropical Cyclones:

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maria)…is located approximately 396 NM southeast of Misawa, Japan

Northeast Pacific Ocean:

>>> South of Southern Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move into a more stable environment, limiting additional development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…30 percent

Central North Pacific: There are no Tropical Cyclones

Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and adjacent Seas:

Tropical Cyclone 06W (Maria)

According to the JTWC Warning number 13, sustained winds are 50 knots with gusts to near 65 knots

Animated multi-spectral satellite imagery depicts a very compact central core that remains fairly well-organized. The low level circulation center (llcc) remains obscured by cirrus debris. Another image showed low-level banding features across the southern hemisphere of the llcc, with moderate convective bands across the northern side.

TS Maria is currently limited to a moderate to strong outflow but only in poleward direction, with nearly no equatorward outflow visible./span>

TS 06W (Maria) is expected to start making a more northwestward turn within the next 12 to 24 hours as a deep-layer ridge to the north of the system develops. As the ridge continues to build in across the northern portion of Japan, TS Maria will continue to turn onto a progressively more northwestward track towards Sendai Bay. TS Maria is expected to make landfall soon after 48 hours and emerge on the western side of Honshu Island around 72 hours and continue tracking northwestward into the central Sea of Japan by the end of the forecast period.

As a significant dry air intrusion is inhibiting the systems ability to further develop, while environmental conditions remain marginal, TS Maria is expected to maintain current intensity through 36 hours, followed by steady weakening. Post landfall, the system is expected to re-emerge as a 35 knot tropical storm, beginning its dissipation soon after.